Got something to say, predict, or report from Huck Finn 2016? Expecting or hoping to see a rankings shift? Upset alerts, speculation, and missives welcome.
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Teams in front of and around V. Tech, turned a miracle possibility at grabbing a bid to almost a possibility. There was only one team (UCSB) that didn’t play, that was also in the same situation as V. Tech. But I’m predicting connectivity might allow fluxing of those positions. SC dropped to 2 bids most likely. SW has a possibility at a 2nd bid still (even with the poor showing of Cal Poly). AC has an even stronger chance at a 3rd bid than before this weekend. I’m not a number guy, just going based off the pattern of the rankings. Cincy may still have a shot, since Ohio State rolled over in a blow out of consolation bracket?
Another potential winner (who didn’t play) is FSU. I don’t think that OSU did enough to get a bid, but I guess we’ll find out in a few days.
Ahh thanks for that. I knew I missed a team :). Adding FSU in the mix, does have them, UCSB, and V. Tech as a possible favorite for earning another bid. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Now it’s a battle of connectivity? Might be leaning towards FSU more. Who would you predict?
I only stated OSU, because they were in the top 30 (usau rankings) and the algorithm favors blowouts. But other losses still loom over them.
I’m not sure there is a clear favorite between those two. VT has played less games so any change will make more of a difference for them, but FSU already has a lead.
I also just realized that Arkansas has a good shot at getting to the cutoff (good weekend for them + not that much further back).
A lot of this might come down to which games are thrown out by USAU in the final rankings (favors VT for the reasons mentioned above).
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Good point about Arkansas. Only have 3 losses in the weekend and held their own (4 point loss) to Minnesota instead of getting obliterated like almost every other team. They also beat teams that were ahead of them in rankings. As a team from behind, I think they also have the best shot sneak from behind the 3 listed above. If I had to rank it all possible cutoff chances.
- FSU 2. VT 3. Arkansas 4. UCSB
It depends how much weight is placed on the teams FSU beat and lost to (some just had too many losses).
How much weight factored on Missouri results (since VT beat them at Easterns) along with others.
Arkansas late performance.
I guess how much weight is factored in early season vs late season results?
Arkansas got a good set of wins heading into bracket play, but I wonder if they scored enough. Lots of games capped On Saturday because of the wind and margins were small in some cases. Still, great run for them.
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Cal Poly SLO still very much in play. Look at their body of work: Nearly 40 games, and a significant head start on the rest of the teams that we are discussing. Their weekend was not good, but not too bad, and they aren’t as vulnerable to a big swing since it makes up less than 20% of their season. They might drop 30 points, but still edge out everyone else. I consider them a front runner.
Looking back at the results, I see that Cal Poly had 4 losses and not 3 as I remembered. Probably a 1600-1650 tournament for them, which would pull them down more like 50 points.
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Here’s the thing: whatever the math says now could easily change (and probably will change) as results get tossed for various reasons due to eligibility issues, lack of a sufficient number of games, etc. The wild results from Huck Finn mean that we probably won’t know who gets the last bid until the finalized rankings get released.
Exciting! Regions in play seem to be Ohio Valley, Southwest, South Central, Southeast (FSU?), Atlantic Coast, and Great Lakes. Wild.
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It’s pretty tightly knit around the cutoff. 50 points means a lot. But you are right, I prematurely brushed off the overall work of Cal Poly. They are still in the mix, but I think their SW buddy UCSB would be closer in that case. I didn’t rule out the possible SW bid, just didn’t think about Cal Poly like that.
My question still stands. Is there a slightly different scale for early season games vs late?
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Yes. The first week of the season is weighted 0.5 and the last week is weighted 1.0. Everything in between is linear between those two.
So for example even though Huck Finn was ⅓ of Arkansas’s games, it will be 40% of their overall ranking.
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Thanks for the insight. So first and last week is going to the the literally weeks the springs season start and end? Or does it apply to the first and last weekend the team played a tournament? Thanks again for the information.
I don’t see a path for UCSB to jump over Florida State (without the right games being deleted).
UCSB is probably favored to finish higher than Cal Poly, but Cal Poly’s universe of possible results from this weekend are larger than UCSB’s, who did not play.
Yeah I honestly can’t see that happening either. But since the points between FSU, VT, and UCSB are within 15 points, I thought it was fair to add them too. It is the battle of connectivity and who has better benefit of the flux. Is it possible the flux for VT may be the most severe (positive or negative) out of the three teams, because their sample size of games is smaller?
Literal weeks of the regular season
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For now, looks like Ohio State is the last in at #18, giving the OV two bids. But will it stand?
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I guess I wasn’t too far off when I talked about the Cincy blowout haha. Wednesday will certainly be an interesting day, along with the day USAU gives a statement on why the bid will stay with the NW. I doubt this might stand.
For now, looks like Ohio State is the last in at #18, giving the OV two bids. But will it stand?
50 points is a lot to move…