Originally published at: https://discgolf.ultiworld.com/2021/02/23/ultiworld-disc-golf-fpo-power-rankings-us-edition-2021-preseason/
Photo: Alyssa Van Lanen – PDGA
The start of a new season is always exciting. 2021 brings with it a renewed sense of optimism. We hope that the tour will proceed without interruption. We hope that COVID vaccinations continue to accelerate so that American and European players can compete together again. We hope that the return of professional golf helps us all muddle through the ragged end of the pandemic.
What can we expect on the course? Paige Pierce dominated in 2020. Will tour savvy veterans like Catrina Allen or Sarah Hokom chase her down in 2021? Will relative newcomers like Missy Gannon, Hailey King, Heather Young, or Valerie Mandujano challenge the old guard? Ellen Widboom took home the W at the Idlewild Open last year. Will we see any unexpected winners this year? Kona Panis came out firing at the DGPT All-Stars event and seems primed to break through into the upper echelon. Jessica Weese is healthy again. Ohn Scoggins is touring more. Rebecca Cox was knocking down putts from distance in the DGPT Virtual Putting Invitational. Get hyped! At the start of a new season, it’s anyone’s ballgame.
Note: while COVID travel restrictions remain in place, this list considers players based in America. We will break out an international top 10 once the season gets underway across the pond.
Methodology: We combine an algorithmic objective ranking with subjective ballots submitted by UWDG staff. The algorithm uses a standardized scoring model to compare elite events, awards competition and cash bonuses, and features a decay function that gradually phases out past results. For the preseason ranking, staff and subscribers considered the following criteria: 1. the results from the most recent Elite Series events, the Jonesboro Open, the USDGC/WNC, and the DGPT Tour Championship, 2. the 2020 UWDG World Rankings, and 3. their super subjective vibes, gut feelings, and premonitions heading into the new season.
Full breakdowns for each player continue below.
1. Paige Pierce. So continues the Quest for 1000. Will 2021 be the year? I’ll be keeping an eye on Pierce’s Circle 1 putting percentage. In 2018 she converted at a 65% clip, up to 72% in 2019, and up again to 79% in 2020. Another 7-point jump to 86% in 2021 would almost certainly guarantee her the four-digit rating, assuming her throwing stats remain unchanged. If Pierce achieves this milestone, it is hard to imagine her losing a stroke-play tournament.
2. Hailey King oozes raw talent. In my estimation, she has the most complete skillset on tour. When everything clicks, like it did at the 2020 Green Mountain Championship, she’s a 1000-rated golfer. With two full touring seasons (asterisk COVID) under her belt, she’s bound to be more comfortable in the limelight in 2021, which should yield consistently higher finishes.
3. Catrina Allen played 23 events in 2020 and only finished outside the top three on three occasions. She led the field in fairway hits (73%). She was second in parked percentage (11%), C1 in regulation (41%), and C2 in regulation (61%). She was third in birdie percentage (29%) and seventh in scramble (37%). At the start of the 2021 season we’re left to ask the perennial question: can she raise her C1 putting average to elite levels? Like Pierce and King, she’s a 1000-rated golfer when the putter is humming.
4. Sarah Hokom is sneakily trending up. Take a look at her PDGA player rating average by year over the past six years. 2015: 942, 2016: 950, 2017: 957, 2018: 961, 2019: 962, 2020: 969. Beginning in 2015 her average rating has gone up without interruption, and the jump from 2019 to 2020 matches her second highest career jump.
5. Missy Gannon’s trio of consecutive podium finishes at the Dynamic Discs Open (2nd), The Preserve Championship (3rd), and the Silver Cup (T-2nd) was the feel-good story after the tour restarted last June. Her trademark spin putt stood out in particular. But the underappreciated aspect of her game, and what will keep her in the hunt in 2021, is her consistency off the tee. She ranked fourth in fairway hits in 2020 (68%).
6. Heather Young is an elite putter, possesses wonderful throwing mechanics, and is collected under pressure. The big question heading into 2021 is whether or not she ratcheted up her distance game in the off-season. In 2020 she ranked ninth in C2 in regulation, but was 14th in C1 in regulation and 18th in parked percentage. Young contends for top three in the world if she moves into the Pierce/Allen/King distance category.
7. Jessica Weese is back! She spent the off-season rehabbing her injured elbow and reported to Cory Murrell that she’s throwing full power forehands again. Perennially one of the best two-way players in the game, a healthy Weese seems primed to break into the 950 club. Like Catrina Allen, her success hinges on her putting, which needs to improve after four consecutive seasons under 60% from C1.
8. Ohn Scoggins looks like she’s in 2015 peak form based on her player rating, and 2021 is already off to a good start. She picked up an early W at the Shelly Sharpe Memorial and won the 2nd annual DGPT Virtual Putting Invitational. Her rapid-fire approach to the competition was impressive to watch and exuded the confidence you’d expect from the no. 1 C1 putter on tour in 2020. She’s preseason my dark horse pick for the USWDGC and the favorite to win the Tim Selinske U.S. Masters Championships.
9. Lisa Fajkus is the OG Heather Young, a short-game whiz and an accurate thrower whose limiting skillset is distance. That said, she picked up six wins in 2020, including at two Silver Series events, and is 2/2 in 2021 including one A-tier. Don’t let her 938 rating fool you, from April through August 2018 she was 948 rated, which shows that her ceiling is higher than her current mark.
10. Valerie Mandujano is hitting the road this year for the first time in her young career, and I can’t wait to watch her play. She finished in the top 10 at all three Elite Series events she played in 2020 and won 11 out of 13 regional events. Her ascent into the upper echelon has been quick. The 956-rated Texan was 896 rated in March of 2018 and is now the fifth highest rated woman in America.
11. Ellen Widboom should probably be in the top 10. She was the only American to win an Elite Series event last year not named Pierce or Allen. Statistically, she’s in the top 10 in every category except C1 in regulation, where she ranks 11th. Also, she has the regional events in Florida on lock.
12. Vanessa Van Dyken had a quietly successful season in 2020. She played seven Elite Series events and averaged a 10th place finish. She also won the River City Open A-tier, besting Catrina Allen by one stroke.
13. Rebecca Cox retooled her run up during the COVID break and spent the second half of the year figuring out her new mechanics. After a rough stretch of play from June through August, things started to click. Her eighth place finish at the Women’s National Championship was her best at an Elite Series event since taking fifth at WACO back in April. Cox also played well at several regional events in October and December. She should be feeling good vibes heading into 2021.
14. Jennifer Allen admittedly had a challenging 2020. Working in the home health care sector kept her off the course and unable to quarantine. But she found her mojo in the gym and is energized to hit the ground running in 2021. She achieved C2 in regulation 68% of the time, better than the tour leader Paige Pierce by four percentage points. When she’s putting it close and canning putts, she’s in contention.
15. Paige Shue is registered for a single event in 2021. You guessed it, the Dynamic Discs Open. The 2018 World Champion had a baby in January and plans to keep a low profile to start the year. Hopefully we’ll see her out there slinging some putters when the tour shifts east toward her home in Charlotte. When she’s playing regularly, she’s a force to be reckoned with, as evidenced by her run of play between mid 2018 through 2019.
16. Callie McMorran came out swinging in 2020, with a fifth place finish at the Las Vegas Challenge and sixth at the Memorial. After the COVID break, things never really got back into full gear. She won the Colorado State Disc Golf Championships, an A-tier, but missed the top 10 at her three Elite Series Events. McMorran finished in the top 10 in parked percentage, C1 in regulation, and C1X putting last year. That’s a good scaffolding to build on in 2021.
17. Holly Finley putting in knee-deep snow during the DGPT Virtual Putting Invitational was one of my favorite moments in the offseason. If anyone is ready for some fair weather in the desert, it’s got to be her. The big question is: how will the drivers fly after she sheds the winter layers?
18. Kona Star Panis looked great from distance and approaching the green at the DGPT All-Stars event over the weekend. It seems like she’s upped her distance and improved her accuracy. Known to be one of the hardest working players over the offseason, this could be the year we see her make a big jump.
19. Alexis Mandujano only played two DGPT events last year, finishing in ninth place at the Idlewild Open and tied for 13th at the Ledgestone Insurance Open. The younger Mandujano converted C1X putts at a 79% clip in those two events, which would place her in a tie for third best with Paige Pierce had she played enough holes to qualify for the 2020 season-long stats comparison. This year marks her third full year playing in the Open Women’s division, and she plans to hit a few more of the big tour stops.
20. Macie Walker won 12 B- and C-tiers in 2020. She finished in a tie for second at the Tennessee State Disc Golf Championships behind Heather Young and later tied for sixth at the Women’s National Championship, where she played 960-rated golf over four rounds. Keep an eye out for Walker at the Jonesboro Open and the DDO.
21. Christine Jennings played 25 events in 2020 and won 12 B- and C-tiers. Another mostly-regional pro getting it done. She also bagged 13th place finishes at Idlewild and the LIO, which is nothing to scoff at. Jennings’s strength is her short game and knocked down 75% of her C1X putts in 2020, good for sixth best in the division, and is an effective scrambler as well.
22. Christina Linthicum played 28 tournaments in 2019 down to seven in 2020, and only one after WACO. The Texas pro was a 900-rated golfer until upping the tournament reps in 2019. Now she sits a 932, only four points below her high water mark. Her UDisc stats are limited but solid, and demonstrate that she can carve up the Texas woods.
23. Emily Beach played well at her two DGPT events after the restart, with top 10 finishes in Peoria and Jonesboro. She planned to hit the road in 2020 before COVID upended the tour. Historically, she hasn’t hit more than three Elite Series events per year, but she always holds her own when she does, Her resume includes a fourth place finish at the Glass Blown Open in 2018.
24. Sarah DeMar has been playing in the Open Women’s division since 2004. She recently achieved a career milestone: 10 consecutive ratings updates above 910. The last time she was rated above 910 was 2008, when she managed the feat four times.
25. Alex Benson lives in Vermont and rarely leaves the state for tournaments. Head over to her Instagram page and watch her can a bunch of long putts in the snow. Also, she’s 927 rated. Pretty sure that if she wanted to hit more of the tour stops, she would perform well.